Rumors around AR, VR, and a mixed reality headset from Apple have keyboards clacking and tongues wagging. Already this year we’ve heard Loup Ventures opine on the subject, we’ve heard TF International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo say how many he thinks will be available when, and this year is only six-days old. Now, Counterpoint Research is joining the call.
The firm issued a press release Wednesday, addressing anticipated shipments of XR headsets. While many have gone with “mixed reality” for the virtual reality/augmented reality combo, Counterpoint counters with “extended reality,” which they’ve shortened to the initials XR. Fells like it should be ER, but who wants to talk about spending time in that?
Any. Way. Last year, the firm says, the XR industry shipped 11-million units. By 2025, Counterpoint expects that number to grow to 105 million units. Props to Facebook’s Oculus Quest 2 for the 2021 performance. Now please make way for the Cupertino-crew. Quoting Counterpoint:
We believe XR headset volumes will start picking up significantly in 2022, as it will be the biggest year for new XR product launches, with offerings from the Oculus Quest series, Sony PlayStation VR2 and the most awaited Apple AR glasses. Oculus and Sony have created a strong demand for their devices and built a good user base for upgrades, while Apple has a strong history of gaining volumes in a new category.
Their thinking on all of it is… interesting. Counterpoint says consumers and the businesses that serve them are favoring standalone versus tethered when it comes to virtual reality devices. “However,” the firm says:
…with Apple expected to enter the AR Tethered segment, we expect it to become the fastest growing and the second biggest form factor by 2025. This will catalyze the participation of many other brands, especially [other smartphone makers].
It’s interesting that they think Apple’s mixed reality offering will start tethered and will still be tethered in 2025.
The way they see it, “North America will remain the biggest XR market, given the size and advancement of its consumer and enterprise users." China will be the fastest growth market, thanks to early adoption of 5G, “a common language that makes content creation easy,” and a slew of smartphone makers ready to follow Apple into the space. Growth in Europe will lag, in Counterpoint’s estimation. While it is “a major XR market at the moment,” having to deal with a plethora of languages will limit content production.
Also, the metaverse. Industry is really excited about producing for the metaverse, even though no one’s 100-percent certain what the metaverse is.
