Ahead of Apple’s anticipated AR/VR device, TrendForce has some interesting ideas around the space, and one idea that I hope is crazy. Let us first hit the interesting. In a press release last week, the firm revised upward its expectation for augmented reality/virtual reality device shipments this year. It’s now got those at just over 14-million units. That’ll be driven partly by “increased demand for remote interactivity stemming from the pandemic,” and partly by reduced prices for Facebook’s Oculus Quest 2.
While talk of the “metaverse” has companies excited about the space, “component shortages and the difficulty of developing new technologies” are said to be holding the whole thing back. And with no known products on the near horizon, TrendForce sees nothing knocking HoloLens 2 out of its lead position in augmented reality. Same goes for Facebook’s Oculus Quest 2 in virtual reality.
“Hold up. Wait a minute. What about Apple?” I pretend to hear you say. Quoting TrendForce:
Since the commercial market places more emphasis on the benefits of hardware and software integration, manufacturers that dominate commercial systems, software, and platforms have the advantage. Thus, Apple has become another focus in the AR/VR device market.
Now let’s do the part I hope is crazy. Consumers can get into an Oculus Quest 2 for about $500. Businesses can grab a HoloLens 2 for between $1,000 and $3,500. The release says “considering hardware performance requirements and gross profit margins,” TrendForce thinks:
…Apple will likely target the commercial market and adopt the same pricing strategy as HoloLens, hardware priced in the thousands of dollars and a monthly subscription-based software solution.
I can tell you why I think that’s crazy and why I want it to be. I think it’s crazy because iPhone and iPad. While not cheap, for a large number of consumers those devices were not out of reach. And consumers are who Apple targeted. Not that business couldn’t have them. Not that business couldn’t make use of them. While both have become mainstays of business, they were aimed at the average John and Jane. Difficult to image Apple taking a wildly different tack on a tech that Apple CEO Tim Cook has said will, one day, be as ubiquitous as smartphones are today.
As for my desire for the TrendForce take to be crazy: I want. I want. Gimme gimme.
