Man alive are people excited about a thing Apple hasn’t announced. No, we’re not talking car, and no, we’re not talking VR. We’re talking about an imaginary thing that could be announced in a little over a week. Or, ya know - not.
Second week of February, Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman got fairly serious about a spring product event from Apple. Gurman pegged the date around 8 March, with the usual caveat that that could change. As far as what he’s expecting, a 5G enabled iPhone SE and a new iPad Air are the two products around which Gurman seems most certain. There’s also the distinct possibility that Apple will continue its transition to its own chip with something in the Mac line.
While Apple could hit with a lot of stuff (assuming it hits with anything), financial analysts are financial analysts, meaning they are most dazzled by iPhone SE potential. Investor’s Business Daily waxed rhapsodic ‘round that last Friday.
Surprising no one, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives is really pleased with iPhone SE potential. While he thinks the company will stick with the current SE’s starting price of $399, a lower cost is not out of the realm of possibility. The way he sees it, the company needs “to make sure that it doesn't outprice itself in the midst of the strongest iPhone upgrade cycle it's had since 2015…” Whatever the price, Ives is just impressed that Apple would hit with new products in the midst of the ongoing chip shortage. The way he sees it, “It speaks to [Apple’s] increased confidence in getting these products into consumers' hands, despite all the challenges…” Ives has an “Outperform” rating on Apple shares. His price target on the shares is $200.
Perhaps a tiny bit more bullish about the future and iPhone SE is Loop Capital Markets analyst John Donovan. He says he’s heard that Apple could drop the starting price on the new phone to $300. He thinks whatever Apple brings to the line will be a “modest upgrade,” according to Investor’s Business Daily. “It addition to 5G wireless capability,” the piece has Donovan saying this year’s iPhone SE “is expected to sport a newer processor —possibly Apple's current A15 chip — along with an improved camera…”
All of that for $100 less does not sound like a “modest upgrade” to me.
Not sure how much stock to put into the $300 talk. Either way, analysts are expecting big things from Apple’s smallest priced iPhone. “The third-generation iPhone SE might provide a lift to Apple's smartphone sales,” according to IBD, “especially in emerging markets like China.” Meanwhile, the piece has JPMorgan saying back in December “that the new iPhone could spur a wave of switchers from Android smartphones.” In a note to clients, the firm indicated that a new iPhone SE “has the potential to lure some of the nearly 1.4 billion users of low to midrange Android phones and about 300 million users of older model iPhones…” All of that means it “could be a catalyst for Apple stock,” according to IBD.
That is a lot riding on a phone that the tech press is likely to greet with a sigh and a halfhearted, “it’s fine.” Then again, they’re tech nerds, not business nerds. Salt to taste.
