Ming-Chi Kuo: 3nm Machines Unlikely from Apple This Year
29 AUGUST 2022 - TF International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is doubling down on his “no 3nm MacBooks this year” insistence. At the same time, he seems to be making peace with talk of 3nm processors from TSMC before year’s end.
A couple of weeks ago, Commercial Times out of Taiwan ran a report, saying that TSMC would/will start producing 3nm processors by the end of this year. With Apple lined up as a priority customer, the Commercial Times piece put MacBook models with the new processors in the hands of consumers by the end of this year.
Cue Ming-Chi Kuo, coming in to burst that bubble. In a post last week the analyst said:
New 14" and 16" MacBook Pro with new processors will enter mass production in 4Q22. Given TSMC's guidance that the 3nm will contribute revenue starting in 1H23, processors of 14" and 16" MacBook Pro models may still adopt the 5nm advanced node.
Now, the analyst has hit with a couple of Twitter posts (1, 2) explaining his thinking. Boiling those down, he seems to believe (or at the very least accept the possibility) that TSMC will start 3nm production between now and the end of the year. However, ramping that will take four-months, in his estimation. The way he sees it, “it would take until Jan 2023 to ship [3nm processors] at the earliest,” and that’s too late for the next round of Apple hardware. The analyst thinks new MacBook Pro units and new iPad Pro models “will enter mass production in 4Q22.” With 3nm processors shipping early next year (not late this year), the analyst thinks the new machine will adopt new processors, but he believes they are “unlikely” to be 3nm processors.
