Ming-Chi Kuo and the "Tinker Bell Principle"
12 APRIL 2022 - It is getting more difficult to clap for Tinker Bell and mean it. You know what I’m talking about, right? Tink ingests poison that had been meant for Peter Pan. She’s gonna die. Then Peter gets the audience watching or hearing the story to clap for Tinker Bell, counteracting the poison and reviving the fairy.
Maybe if none of us pointed that out it would keep working. I do worry sometimes that our constant focus on “bad” news just magnifies that bad news. Put another way, if great stores can change the world, what can bad stories do?
Stupid early Monday morning, TF International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo hit with a string of four Twitter posts that questioned the upcoming effectiveness of “the Tinker Bell principle.” Of course, he did not use that term.
China's COVID-19 lockdown is starting to affect iPhone assembly. Pegatron, the 2nd largest iPhone [manufacturer] has already halted assembly in Shanghai & Kunshan. In the best-case scenario, complete resumption of production may not be possible until late April or early May.
Foxconn, the largest iPhone [manufacturer], has not been affected and can partly fill the near-term supply gap. Suppose Foxconn can maintain a regular operation, and Pegatron can gradually recover. In this case, the impact of the lockdown on iPhone supply will be short-term & limited.
Although it's hard to predict future lockdown changes, Apple has the best supply chain management capabilities and a good relationship with the Chinese government, so I think Apple can minimize the impact of a lockdown on supply.
“However,” begins Tweet no. 4:
…the longer the lockdown lasts, the further effect on consumer confidence would likely [rise] and would probably be detrimental to the shipments of consumer electronics (including Apple's products) in 2H22.
I don’t know whether we’ve been practicing “the Tinker Bell principle” because it doesn’t occur to us that things won’t work out, or because we think that if those of us who can afford to buy smartphones don’t, the stores that sell the smartphones will close, the restaurants next to those stores will close, the factories that make the phones will lay people off, as will the factories that make the paper for the packaging, and there go the food trucks and coffee shops around those factories as well. The planet was stunned a couple of years ago by the ferocity and effectiveness of the clapping consumers demonstrated to keep Tink flying. “However,” says Young MC:
…the longer the lockdown lasts, the further effect on consumer confidence would likely [rise] and would probably be detrimental to the shipments of consumer electronics (including Apple's products) in 2H22.
Dude! How’m I supposed to keep clapping if you tell me my arms are getting tired?
Of course, it’s not his fault. It’s COVID-19 and Russia and inflation and uncertainty. That last one’s huge. Uncertainty has always been there. But now we’re having to face that uncertainty. And facing it, we’re faced with whether and/or how to keep clapping.
